In the western United States, ranchers lease grazing rights on public lands through permits issued by the Bureau of Land Management. But these permits don't always stay in the same hands—some change owners frequently, while others remain with the same ranching families for generations. When permits change hands often, the land tends to be managed by short-term users who might not have a long-term care plan as compared to multi-generational ranching families. Understanding what drives permit (un)stability is crucial is crucial for protecting these public lands.

We analyzed long term Bureau of Land Management permit records (1938-present) from over 500 allotments in southern New Mexico, combining archival tenure data with satellite time series to identify environmental and social factors that influence turnover patterns.

         Publication in prepration:

Lu, Luci. Amy Slaughter, Darren James, Rhonda Skaggs, Brandon Bestelmeyer. "Factors influencing land transfer: Evidence from public rangelands in the United States." 

key resources are patches that provide relatively stable and predictable forage through periods of overall forage scarcity (e.g., dry seasons or prolonged droughts). These areas function as drought refugia, buffering livestock populations from the full impact of climatic fluctuations and preventing catastrophic losses during severe droughts. As rainfall variability increases, identifying and managing these key resources becomes critical for sustaining pastoral livelihoods and enhancing rangeland resilience. 

Using 35+ years of satellite data from the Rangeland Analysis Platform (RAP), we are identifying and analyzing key resources across public lands in southwestern New Mexico. Our work assesses the spatiotemporal dynamics of persistent forages and quantifies their stability and productivity over three decades and characterizing their biophysical attributes. 

         Publication in preparation: 

Lu, Luci, Sarah McCord and Brandon Bestelmeyer. "Identifying Drought Refugia: Locating and Understanding Key Forage Resources in Non-Equilibrium Rangelands with Satellite"